Deal origination
Private equity deal origination in the UK: what the figures show and leave out
The main UK series count deals and capital in different ways, and none of them records how private equity deals are found.
KPMG UK counted 888 UK private equity deals in the first half of 2026, 3.4% fewer than in the same half of 2025. The second quarter pulled the total down: deal volume rose 3.9% year on year in the first three months and then fell 10% in the next three. KPMG links the slowdown mainly to uncertainty over the Iran conflict and, to a lesser degree, to concern about what AI will do across sectors. Each of those deals reached its buyer through some form of private equity deal origination, whether an adviser ran a sale or the buyer approached the owner directly.
UK Private Capital (formerly the BVCA) reports that funds managed from the UK raised £58.7bn in 2025 to invest in the UK and abroad, against £34.8bn in 2024, over a year in which KPMG's separate count of UK private equity deals fell. This piece sets out the latest UK deal and fundraising figures and explains where the series disagree. It then looks at what they say about how deals are found, and at what they leave out.
UK deal value held up in 2025 while the deal count fell
KPMG's full-year figures for 2025 show the count of UK private equity deals down 10% and total value up 3.5% to £176.6bn. With value up and the number of deals down, the deals that did complete were larger on average. KPMG does not publish an average deal value, and a few very large transactions would distort any average calculated from its totals.
UK private equity deal value stood at £73.2bn in 2015, according to PitchBook's 2025 UK Private Capital Breakdown, and climbed to £148.2bn in 2021 and £160.5bn in 2022 before falling to £99.4bn in 2023. It recovered to £121.3bn in 2024. That edition carries data as of 30 June 2025, and later editions may show different figures.
The global buyout market moved the same way on a larger scale. Bain's Global Private Equity Report 2026 puts global buyout value at $904bn in 2025, up 44%, while the number of global buyout deals fell 6% to 3,018. The average disclosed deal size reached a record $1.2bn. Bain's figures come from Dealogic and leave out add-ons, so they sit apart from KPMG's UK count, which includes bolt-ons.
Bolt-ons make up most of KPMG's deal count
In the UK, the value headline probably rests on a relatively small number of large deals, a pattern Bain's data shows for global buyouts, where 13 deals of $10bn or more made up 30% of value. None of the UK sources publishes an equivalent split.
KPMG's count is made up mostly of bolt-ons, as the figures in the post on bolt-on acquisition sourcing show. In UK Private Capital's investment series, which includes venture capital, most companies are small or medium-sized, and the deal origination guide on this site gives those figures. UK Private Capital also reports that private capital backs more than 13,000 UK companies, which between them employ over 2.5 million people. Those bolt-ons and smaller companies are probably where origination does most of its work.
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The main UK series count different things
This piece draws on four series, and each measures something slightly different.
KPMG's figures cover UK private equity deals, bolt-ons included. KPMG says they are based on PitchBook data, with insights from its own professionals across the UK.
PitchBook publishes its own UK count and value in its UK Private Capital Breakdown, and the deal origination guide on this site charts its count by year.
UK Private Capital reports private equity and venture capital investment into UK-headquartered companies, whether the investing fund is based in the UK or overseas. It compiles the figures from member data, data from other European national associations and public sources.
The ONS counts completed mergers and acquisitions involving UK companies where the deal is worth £1m or more and transfers control. Its bulletin does not mention private equity. A private equity acquisition of a UK company meets that definition, so such deals presumably form one part of the count.
Because each series follows its own rules, the safest course is to quote one series for each comparison and to name it.
The latest official figures for 2026 show fewer domestic deals
The ONS bulletin for April to June 2026, published on 1 September, recorded 130 domestic deals worth £4.2bn, against 241 deals worth £3.4bn a year earlier. Inward deals, in which overseas companies bought UK companies, fell to 162 from 203, while their value rose to £25.4bn from £9.7bn.
The ONS describes these figures as provisional and says revisions tend to be upward. They cover all M&A of £1m and above, so they cannot on their own show a trend in private equity.
UK managers raised more in 2025 and hold £190bn yet to invest
UK Private Capital calls the £58.7bn raised in 2025 the third-highest total on record. Buyout funds took £51.7bn of it, and about two thirds came from investors outside the UK. The trade body links the rise to investors giving more to Europe-focused funds, many of them run from the UK.
UK Private Capital also reports that private equity and venture capital firms have put nearly £150bn into UK businesses over the last five years, and that UK-based managers led £45.7bn of investment worldwide in 2025. Those managers also hold £190bn of uninvested capital, which UK Private Capital expects to be put to work over three to five years.
PitchBook records UK private equity exit value of £81.6bn in 2023 and £42.7bn in 2024, plus £17.7bn in the first half of 2025, a half-year figure that cannot be set against the full years. One fund's exit can become another fund's secondary buyout, so these figures track one source of supply for secondary buyers.
In our experience, more capital and fewer completed deals have made lower mid-market deals harder to win, because more buyers now chase each good company and auctions get crowded and expensive. None of these sources records bidder numbers. The best acquisitions we see at that end of the market come from direct owner approaches, in which the buyer, or someone acting for it, contacts an owner who had not planned a sale.
The figures say nothing about how private equity deal origination happens
KPMG, PitchBook, UK Private Capital and the ONS all report counts and values, and none of their series separates deals that came through an intermediary from deals the buyer found itself. The nearest evidence on deal sourcing in private equity is an older survey of mostly US investors, discussed in the guide to how deals reach buyers. The post on proprietary deal sourcing looks at how large the off-market share may be and what the term covers.
We would argue that the gap that matters most to a buyer is the deals that never happen. Owners who are approached and say "not yet" leave no trace in any of these series, and they often sell later.
The next official figures arrive on 1 December 2026, when the ONS publishes its bulletin for July to September.
